Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
