Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
